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澎湃新闻记者 孙铭蔚桥水基金创始人瑞·达利欧（Ray Dalio）最新观点认为，美国三年内或将迎来债务危机。

二 | 当地时间8月21日，达利欧在其个人网站发表题为《国家如何走向破产：当下变局背后的内在逻辑》（How Countries Go Broke: The Dynamic Behind What is Happening Now）的文章。他指出，美国财政部长贝森特本周宣布的债务回购计划，或预示危机临近。

三 | 达利欧称，美国政府今年的总收入大概是5.5万亿美元，而总支出约为7.5万亿美元，预算缺口达到约两万亿美元。同时由于美国政府长期靠借债度日，目前的债务余额已经达到约32万亿美元（注：不计入政府间债务），相当于年收入的6倍，这些债务每年的利息超过1万亿美元。“我确信，美国政府的财政状况正处于一个转折点。”达利欧写道，如果现在不加以解决，债务将会累积到难以承受的地步，造成巨大的经济创伤。    If the latest reports from the industry are anything to go by, Nani’s upcoming film The Paradise has undergone a major change in its release plans. Initially, the makers had locked March 26, 2026, as the release date. The team stood their ground even after Ram Charan’s Peddi announced its arrival for March 27. Despite the clear clash, Nani reportedly showed no hesitation. He was game for a direct box-office face-off, believing in the strength of his content.          The Paradise to step back?     However, after several internal discussions, the team of The Paradise has chosen to step back from the March window. With Peddi arriving a day later and carrying massive expectations, the makers of Nani’s film felt it was wiser not to risk their film, especially since it is being made on a record budget for Nani. The Paradise needs a big solo release to enjoy the box office advantage and maximize its potential, commercially and critically. Directed by Srikanth Odela, who previously delivered the intense action drama Dasara, The Paradise is shaping up as a big-scale emotional entertainer. The film also features veteran actor Mohan Babu in a powerful role. With such an ensemble cast and high investment, the producers want everything, from promotions to release timing to work in their favour.          Filmmakers eyeing May 2026?     The latest buzz is that The Paradise team is now looking at May 2026 as their new release plan. Summer has traditionally been a strong season for Telugu cinema, and the makers believe that a solo release in May will give the action adventure the right platform to shine. While fans are slightly disappointed by the delay, many agree that the move is strategic and beneficial for the film’s long-term success. While we await an official confirmation, the expectations continue to grow on the ambitious film.Also Read: Peddi: Vicky Kaushal’s Father Sham Kaushal Collaborates With Ram Charan。尤其重要的是，这项行动必须在经济体系相对稳健的时候进行，而不是在经济疲软的时候。在达利欧看来，美国债务问题正在从一个长期存在的结构性风险，逐渐转变为一个需要政策当局正面处理的现实问题。达利欧预测，如果美国不想办法改变现状，债务危机“可能在三年内爆发，上下浮动两年左右”。达利欧进一步指出，要延迟甚至解决债务问题，美国需要“三管齐下”，通过削减开支、增加税收以及降低利率等措施，将目前的预算赤字从约6%降至国内生产总值的3%。“三者需同时进行，以防任何一项幅度过大，”达利欧表示，否则，过度削减支出、过度增加税收或人为压低利率，都可能带来严重的经济冲击。鉴于眼下并非只有美国面临债务问题，达利欧预计大多数经济体都会经历类似的债务和货币贬值调整过程， “这也是为什么我预计黄金和比特币等非政府发行的货币会表现相对较好。”在投资层面，达利欧建议投资者分散投资于那些收入状况和资产负债表稳健、内部政治和外部地缘政治冲突不严重的资产类别和国家，同时减持债券等债务资产，增持黄金和少量比特币。“将总资产的一小部分，约10%‑15%配置黄金，不仅可以降低投资组合的整体风险，我认为还能够提升组合收益。”达利欧补充道。达利欧发表此番言论之际，正值美国金融市场动荡的一周。国债收益率上升给股市带来压力，标普500指数也因此承压。黄金则在周五触及三个月以来新高，现货黄金重新站上4600美元/盎司关口，连续第三周收涨。